Internal forecast hub
The Q4 model, out loud.
Move the four inputs and the Q4 picture moves with them. This is the working sheet for the Ernie + Kyle pricing and forecast conversation — every number is an assumption until Tuesday.
Scenario builder
Q4 2026 — drag the assumptions.
Before trade
Carried by sales
64.3% of net
$2.97 gross profit per bottle
Pricing sensitivity
Pressure-test price, cost, and volume.
100,000 units
Each result uses 12.0% trade spend. Changes are measured against the highlighted working case.
Working sensitivity — not committed| Wholesale | Unit cost | Revenue | Trade spend | Gross profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.75 | $1.40 | $475K($50K) | $57K($6K) | $278K($19K) | 66.5%+2.2 pts |
| $5.25 | $1.40 | $525KBaseline | $63KBaseline | $322K+$25K | 69.7%+5.4 pts |
| $5.75 | $1.40 | $575K+$50K | $69K+$6K | $366K+$69K | 72.3%+8.0 pts |
| $4.75 | $1.65 | $475K($50K) | $57K($6K) | $253K($44K) | 60.5%-3.8 pts |
| $5.25working | $1.65 | $525KBaseline | $63KBaseline | $297KBaseline | 64.3%Baseline |
| $5.75 | $1.65 | $575K+$50K | $69K+$6K | $341K+$44K | 67.4%+3.1 pts |
| $4.75 | $1.90 | $475K($50K) | $57K($6K) | $228K($69K) | 54.5%-9.7 pts |
| $5.25 | $1.90 | $525KBaseline | $63KBaseline | $272K($25K) | 58.9%-5.4 pts |
| $5.75 | $1.90 | $575K+$50K | $69K+$6K | $316K+$19K | 62.5%-1.8 pts |
$4.75 wholesale
$1.40 unit cost
- Revenue
- $475K ($50K)
- Trade spend
- $57K ($6K)
- Gross profit
- $278K ($19K)
- Margin
- 66.5% +2.2 pts
$5.25 wholesale
$1.40 unit cost
- Revenue
- $525K Baseline
- Trade spend
- $63K Baseline
- Gross profit
- $322K +$25K
- Margin
- 69.7% +5.4 pts
$5.75 wholesale
$1.40 unit cost
- Revenue
- $575K +$50K
- Trade spend
- $69K +$6K
- Gross profit
- $366K +$69K
- Margin
- 72.3% +8.0 pts
$4.75 wholesale
$1.65 unit cost
- Revenue
- $475K ($50K)
- Trade spend
- $57K ($6K)
- Gross profit
- $253K ($44K)
- Margin
- 60.5% -3.8 pts
$5.25 wholesale
$1.65 unit cost
- Revenue
- $525K Baseline
- Trade spend
- $63K Baseline
- Gross profit
- $297K Baseline
- Margin
- 64.3% Baseline
$5.75 wholesale
$1.65 unit cost
- Revenue
- $575K +$50K
- Trade spend
- $69K +$6K
- Gross profit
- $341K +$44K
- Margin
- 67.4% +3.1 pts
$4.75 wholesale
$1.90 unit cost
- Revenue
- $475K ($50K)
- Trade spend
- $57K ($6K)
- Gross profit
- $228K ($69K)
- Margin
- 54.5% -9.7 pts
$5.25 wholesale
$1.90 unit cost
- Revenue
- $525K Baseline
- Trade spend
- $63K Baseline
- Gross profit
- $272K ($25K)
- Margin
- 58.9% -5.4 pts
$5.75 wholesale
$1.90 unit cost
- Revenue
- $575K +$50K
- Trade spend
- $69K +$6K
- Gross profit
- $316K +$19K
- Margin
- 62.5% -1.8 pts
Budget allocation
Keep sales trade and marketing POS separate.
Total allocation
$63K
Per unit
$0.63
Sales · trade + promotion
Calculated from gross wholesale revenue
$63K
100.0% of allocation
Marketing · POS material
Entered separately; never deducted from trade
$0.00
0.0% of allocation
| Quarter | Units | Gross wholesale | Trade rate | Sales trade | Marketing POS | Total allocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| Q2 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| Q3 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| Q4 | $525K | $63K | $63K | |||
| Total | 100,000 | $525K | — | $63K | $0.00 | $63K |
Q1
$0.00 total
Sales trade
$0.00
Q2
$0.00 total
Sales trade
$0.00
Q3
$0.00 total
Sales trade
$0.00
Q4
$63K total
Sales trade
$63K
Scenario comparison
All quarters · current inputs| Scenario | Units | Sales trade | Marketing POS | Total | Per unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 75,000 | $47K | $0.00 | $47K | $0.63 |
| Planselected | 100,000 | $63K | $0.00 | $63K | $0.63 |
| Stretch | 125,000 | $79K | $0.00 | $79K | $0.63 |
Sales trade includes slotting, scan and promotional allowances, depletion incentives, and returns reserve. Marketing POS includes physical point-of-sale materials and activation support entered above.
Reference cases
Conservative, plan, stretch.
| Scenario | Units | Cases | Gross | Trade | Net | Gross profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 75,000 | 6,250 | $394K | $47K | $347K | $223K |
| Planleaning | 100,000 | 8,333 | $525K | $63K | $462K | $297K |
| Stretch | 125,000 | 10,417 | $656K | $79K | $578K | $371K |
AI planning workspace
Turn the working model into an investor scenario.
Save the current inputs with market context, then build a private, continuing analysis covering investor takeaways, risks, recommendations, and open decisions.
Ground rules
What the team has already settled.
Forecast leads the spend
The sales forecast sets the market spend, not the other way around. Kyle and Ernie need more than a day or two to build it properly.
Trade sits in sales
Trade spend and trade promotion are modeled against gross wholesale and carried in the sales line.
POS sits in marketing
Point-of-sale material comes out of the marketing budget so trade dollars stay tied to volume.
Open decisions
Before Tuesday.
Q4 unit commitment
Ernie + KyleLeaning 100,000 units. Final Tuesday.
Full sales forecast build
Ernie + KyleIn progress — needs more than a day or two. This drives market spend allocation.
Overall pricing model
Ernie + KyleNow driven by the 3-year model (CFO Case): $9.99 SRP / $5.25 wholesale / 25% distributor margin.
Confirmed COGS on RN
OpsModel carries $1.65/bottle (CFO note: expect $1.75+ at launch MOQs). Awaiting landed cost.
Trade spend envelope
Sales + MarketingStructure agreed (trade in sales, POS in marketing). Dollar envelope pending the forecast.
Distributor target list
SalesNot started. Needed to convert the unit plan into account-level volume.
Field team pay plan
Shiky / Tom, Kyle + Alex$25/hr + 10/20/30% commission tiers designed. Needs Shiky/Tom sign-off before hiring; door-opening bonus and reorder % still TBD.
Field team budget (Year 1)
Alex$840K–$1.42M penciled for 9 reps, 3 regional managers, President of Sales. Largest line item; pending Alex.