Leaning here; Ernie + Kyle finalize Tuesday.
Assumption — finalizingParity with feel free CLASSIC at about $8.00.
Assumption — finalizing$5.25 wholesale less $1.65 COGS.
Assumption — finalizingTwo legal footprints, one distributor conversation.
Three-year executive view
From launch investment to a profitable national business.
CFO Case from the shared model. All figures remain working assumptions until Ernie and Kyle finalize them.
$500K cushion included
Assumption — finalizingExpected in FY2 Q3
Assumption — finalizingOperating result turns positive
Assumption — finalizingCash invested is earned back
Assumption — finalizing| Measure | FY1 (Oct-26–Sep-27) | FY2 | FY3 | feel free estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | $2.22M | $9.69M | $29.10M | $200.00M |
| Gross margin | 51.4% | 53.8% | 55.4% | 63.6% |
| EBITDA | ($4.40M) | ($632K) | $10.04M | Not available |
| Sales & marketing / revenue | 129.7% | 31.9% | 10.6% | 15.0% |
Highest-impact levers
What moves FY1 EBITDA most.
Rank 1
DTC paid media — daily rate
−$2,000/day after the launch months
+$394K
Rank 2
Velocity
+1.0 unit/store/week (c-store; smoke shop scales with it)
+$389K
Rank 3
Doors added per month
+100 doors/month
+$213K
Category benchmark
The distance to feel free.
- Estimated doors
- 30,000
- Estimated revenue
- $200.00M
- Gross margin
- 63.6%
- Legal doors for Easy Days
- 147,950
feel free figures are outside estimates, not audited results.
The product
What we're putting on the shelf.
Kava + Kratom
Wind-down after the work is done
Noble kava root, water-extracted, lab-verified plain leaf kratom, third-party tested every lot.
Kava + Caffeine
Steadier, calmer kind of alert
Noble kava root only with a moderate caffeine dose. No kratom — sells where kratom cannot.
Where we attack
Where feel free (Botanic Tonics) is exposed.
Full disclosure on the front of the bottle
The category's biggest liability is labeling. Easy Days states Kava + Kratom plainly, 21+, with dose and warnings up front. That is a buyer-safety argument, not just a marketing line.
Two SKUs, two legal footprints
Kava + Caffeine holds shelf where kratom is restricted. A one-SKU competitor loses the door entirely; Easy Days keeps the account.
Lab-tested every lot, published
Third-party testing per lot, made available to the buyer. Matches the compliance bar the category leader had to build after the fact.
Creator Collective instead of paid category ads
16.5% attributed commission on a 21+ creator roster — acquisition cost scales with sales instead of front-loading media spend.
Interpretation based on public reporting and Botanic Tonics' own releases — see the investor page for sources.
Still open
What we owe each other this week.
| Item | Status | Owner |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 unit commitment | Leaning 100,000 units. Final Tuesday. | Ernie + Kyle |
| Full sales forecast build | In progress — needs more than a day or two. This drives market spend allocation. | Ernie + Kyle |
| Overall pricing model | Now driven by the 3-year model (CFO Case): $9.99 SRP / $5.25 wholesale / 25% distributor margin. | Ernie + Kyle |
| Confirmed COGS on RN | Model carries $1.65/bottle (CFO note: expect $1.75+ at launch MOQs). Awaiting landed cost. | Ops |
| Trade spend envelope | Structure agreed (trade in sales, POS in marketing). Dollar envelope pending the forecast. | Sales + Marketing |
| Distributor target list | Not started. Needed to convert the unit plan into account-level volume. | Sales |
| Field team pay plan | $25/hr + 10/20/30% commission tiers designed. Needs Shiky/Tom sign-off before hiring; door-opening bonus and reorder % still TBD. | Shiky / Tom, Kyle + Alex |
| Field team budget (Year 1) | $840K–$1.42M penciled for 9 reps, 3 regional managers, President of Sales. Largest line item; pending Alex. | Alex |